By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, Feb 24 (Reuters) – U.S. consumer confidence rebounded more than expected in February, but the share of consumers viewing jobs as “hard to get” increased to a five-year high, raising the risk of the unemployment rate increasing this month.
The improvement in confidence reported by the Conference Board on Tuesday was mostly among consumers aged 54 years or less, and respondents identifying as Republican and Independent. The mood remained downbeat among those 55 and older, as well as among Democrats. President Donald Trump was due to give his State of the Union address later on Tuesday amid growing voter disapproval of his handling of the economy, mostly related to his sweeping import tariffs that have raised prices.
“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumers’ minds,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “Mentions of trade and politics also increased. Labor market mentions eased a bit, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.”
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased 2.2 points to 91.2 this month. Data for January was revised higher to show the index at 89.0 instead of 84.5, which was the lowest level since May 2014. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 87.0. It is well below the four-year peak of 112.8 touched in November 2024.
The improvement and upward revision to January’s data mirror the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. The biggest increase in confidence was among households with annual incomes of $100,000-$124,999. Consumers making $15,000-$24,999 per year were less upbeat as were those in the $35,000-$49,999 and $50,000-$74,999 income groups.
The share of consumers saying “jobs were hard to get” climbed to 20.6, the highest level since February 2021, from 19.0 in January. This aligns with government data showing elevated readings on people collecting unemployment checks as well as the median duration of joblessness.
Opportunities remain scarce for young college graduates, labor market data shows.
Still, households also believed the availability of jobs had improved, with the share saying jobs were “plentiful” rising to 28.0 from 25.8 in January. That resulted in the survey’s so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents’ views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, widening 0.6 percentage points to 7.4%.
This measure, which correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department’s monthly employment report, was around 18.2% a year ago. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December. The median duration of unemployment is near four-year highs.
“The pace of decline in the differential has moderated slightly in recent months relative to much of last year, though the muted levels continue to signal a heightened risk of the unemployment rate rebounding in the next jobs report,” said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.
CONSUMERS’ BUYING INTENTIONS WERE MIXED
Economists say Trump’s trade and immigration policies were restraining hiring. The U.S. Supreme Court last Friday struck down Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies. Trump swiftly imposed a 10% global tariff for 150 days to replace some of the emergency duties, before raising the rate to 15% on Saturday.
Consumers’ buying intentions over the next six months were mixed. The share planning to purchase a motor vehicle fell, but more consumers planned to buy major appliances like refrigerators, television sets and vacuum cleaners.
But fewer consumers intended to purchase washing machines, and vacations were not in the cards for many. Consumers’ median 12-month inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.4%.
The share planning to buy a home edged down, suggesting easing mortgage rates and slowing house price growth were unlikely to boost demand.
Supply remains tight, especially for entry-level homes, propping up prices and keeping the dream of owning a house out of reach for many Americans. The Trump administration has implemented a slew of measures to improve housing affordability. But Trump’s aggressive tariffs and immigration crackdown, which have raised prices for building materials and appliances and undercut labor supply, were constraining builders’ ability to ramp up housing construction, economists and trade groups say.
Building lots are also scarce amid state and local government regulations. Single-family house prices edged up 0.1% in December after increasing 0.7% in November, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in a separate report.
Prices increased 1.8% in the 12 months through December, after climbing 2.1% in November. The slowdown partly reflected big gains in 2024 dropping out of the calculation.
Though mortgage rates dropped in recent weeks, economists saw limited scope for further declines, citing worries over federal government debt that are keeping U.S. Treasury yields elevated. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield. Labor market conditions also remain too sluggish to stimulate demand.
Residential investment, which includes home building and sales, has contracted for four straight quarters. Economists believe tight inventory could prevent an outright decline in national home prices.
“Base effects will continue to weigh on annual home price growth in the first quarter, but we think the worst of the softness in home price growth is well behind us and look for a gradual acceleration over the balance of 2026,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci )
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