By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, June 23 (Reuters) – Global stocks slumped in a tech-fueled selloff on Tuesday, with investors unnerved by growing debt-funded AI spending, the prospect of a more hawkish U.S. rate outlook, and tightening financial conditions from a stronger dollar and higher U.S. bond yields.
In my column today I look at how investors may struggle with Fed communications under new chair Kevin Warsh if he adopts the more opaque messaging of the Alan Greenspan era. The chasm between Citi and Bank of America’s Fed calls suggests the lack of clear signaling is already playing out.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
1. Chip stocks plunge, but bargain-hunters stem losses in other tech names
2. SpaceX’s wild ride is just getting started
3. U.S. manufacturing rises on front-loading of orders, but factory employment tumbles to six-year low
4. Iran war triggers global race to build oil reserves: Bousso
5. Apollo’s $26 billion private credit fund imposes 5% cap on requests to pull 17%
Today’s Key Market Moves
• STOCKS: Japan, China benchmarks -3%. South Korea -10%. Europe -0.7%. Nasdaq -2.2%, S&P 500 -1.4%.
• SECTORS/SHARES: Six S&P 500 sectors fall, six rise. Tech -3.7%, industrials -2%, consumer staples +1.8%. “SOX” chip index -8%. Nvidia -4%, IBM +5%.
• FX: Dollar index +0.4%, highest in over a year. Euro $1.1375, lowest in a year. AUD, SEK, NOK all -1%. Hungarian forint biggest decliner after cenbank cuts rates.
• BONDS: German 10-yr yield lowest close in three months. U.S. 2-yr yield down 4 bps from yesterday’s 16-month high. 2-yr auction so-so – slight tail, average bid/cover, good direct demand.
• COMMODITIES/METALS: Gold -2%, silver -5% to lowest close this year. Oil down, Brent -1% for lowest close since Iran war started, WTI -2%.
Today’s Talking Points
* Tech shake, rattle and roll
The global tech shakeout intensified on Tuesday. South Korea’s KOSPI sank 10%, the U.S. “SOX” chip index fell 8%, and the S&P 500 tech subindex lost 4%. The Nasdaq’s 2% decline meant the index lost almost $1 trillion in value.
Some of this is overdue and perhaps even warranted – the SOX hit a record high on Monday, having more than doubled in less than two months. But it’s a worry, and fears of bursting bubbles and market turmoil will intensify if there are too many repeats.
* Oil loses oomph
Oil is down 40% from its Iran war peak, with Brent crude futures on Tuesday posting their lowest close since the conflict began in late February. Brent is below $80/bbl and falling, WTI futures could soon test $70/bbl.
It’s a remarkable reversal from well over $100/bbl, and a welcome one for policymakers. Inflationary pressures are fading, and oil is close to being the disinflationary force it was for the whole year before war broke out. On Monday, the year-on-year change in WTI oil had evaporated to zero.
* 10 years after
Tuesday marked the 10th anniversary of the “Brexit” referendum in 2016 when Britons voted to leave the European Union. The country has been grappling with the economic and political consequences ever since.
Fittingly, the anniversary coincides with yet another handover of power after Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday said he will resign. Divisions remain deep, and political and economic uncertainty runs high. There’s no sign of that changing any time soon, suggesting a higher risk premium in UK assets.
What could move markets tomorrow?
• Developments in the Middle East
• Australia inflation (May)
• Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks
• Bank of Japan summary of June 15-16 policy meeting
• Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks
• Taiwan industrial production (May)
• Thailand interest rate decision
• Germany Ifo index (June)
• U.S. current account (Q1)
• U.S. Treasury auctions $70 billion of 5-year notes
• U.S. Treasury auctions $28 billion of 2-year floating rate notes
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
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